Tasmania
Tasmania has an estimated population of 494,520. It is the smallest of Australia's six states. Tasmania's population is divided almost equally between the north and south. On the island's north coast, there are a number of regional centres which cater for the agricultural and industrial activities.
Tasmania is a rugged island of temperate climate. Mountainous regions cover most of the central, west and southwest parts of the state. Central east Tasmania is fairly flat by comparison and is predominantly used for agriculture, although various types of farming activity can be seen all around the state.
The following are just a few examples of the potential impacts and costs to the State's industries, infrastructure, environment and people*.
Extreme events
Tasmania is likely to experience moderate rises in temperatures with evaporation likely to increase in all areas except the west coast and associated highlands where small decreases are indicated.
Rainfall is likely to increase by 7 to 11 per cent in the west and central areas, and decrease by around 8 per cent in the north-east by 2040.
By 2030 in Launceston the annual average number of cold days below 0°C is likely to decrease from 35 to 16-30 days. Sea level rises and frequent and severe storm surges are likely to result in inundation and erosion to Tasmania's coast.
Warmer temperatures and changing rainfall patterns would impact on water availability.
Coastal zones
More than 20 per cent of the Tasmanian coastline will be a risk from sea level rise and more severe storm surges associated with climate change.
By 2100, between 8,700 and 11,600 homes in Tasmania are threatened by sea level rise of 1.1 metres and storm tides. The value of these homes is between $2.4 billion and $3.3 billion.
A recent study of the City of Clarence to the east of Hobart found that a 1-in-100 year storm under current climate change conditions could lead to erosion of 25 metres inland and place 19 houses at risk.With climate change, the erosion could increase to 95 metres inland by 2100 and place 195 houses at risk.
Industry losses
Agriculture
Tasmania's primary industries are under threat by climate change; however some industries, such as wine growing, could benefit from the projected changes in climate.
In 2006-07 the preliminary estimate of the gross value of agricultural commodities in Tasmania was $942.4 million. The largest contributors were whole milk ($234.3 million), beef production ($236.2 million) and vegetables ($182.4 million).
Climate change impacts will likely lead to a decline relative to what would otherwise have been in Tasmanian farm output. Dairy output is projected to decrease by around 8 per cent by 2030 and by 12.5 per cent by 2050.
Aquaculture
Increased sea surface temperatures may present challenges for the production of cool-water farmed aquaculture species, such as Atlantic salmon. The value of Tasmanian salmon aquaculture was $221 million in 2005-06. However, there is potential for adaptation by the industry.
Infrastructure
Increases in extreme storm events are expected to cause more flash flooding affecting industry and infrastructure, including water, sewerage and stormwater, transport and communications, and may challenge emergency services. In low-lying coastal areas infrastructure is vulnerable to sea level rise and inundation.
Tourism
Impacts on the natural environment and the region's wine industry could directly affect the tourism industry.
Biodiversity
Natural habitats, especially alpine environments and coastal systems are likely to be impacted. The Southwest region of Tasmania is densely forested and holds some of the last temperate rainforests and oldest trees in the world.
The Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (TWWHA) includes most of these forests and also alpine environments. Increased temperatures from climate change will diminish the extent of Tasmania's alpine area and reduce the habitats available for native species.
Nine plant species (alpine obligates) are presently restricted to alpine areas above the tree line within the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area. Three alpine skinks are endemic to this area.
A 10-40 per cent reduction in snow cover projected by 2030 would result in a change in the dynamics of alpine communities and may lead to serious population declines of some species and loss of ecosystems.
Marine Biodiversity
The warming of sea surface temperatures, which is projected to be greatest off south-east Australia, is likely to affect the distribution of species with flow on effects to the broader marine ecosystem. Waters off the east coast of Tasmania have recorded an increase in temperature of more than 1°C since the 1940s.
In the last decade, around 36 species of marine fish have shown noticeable changes in distribution, including range shifts further south and new species not previously recorded in Tasmania.
The long-spined sea urchin migrated south from NSW with the southerly extension of the East Australian Current. It has spread along the east coast of Tasmania and is believed to be impacting kelp communities, with potential implications for the sustainability of rock lobster and abalone fisheries in the absence of control measures. The value of Tasmanian rock lobster and abalone production in 2004-05 was approximately $150 million.
* Note: Much work still needs to be done to analyse regional climate change impacts, and determine which areas might be most vulnerable. The Government is investing in this effort, through for example $44 million to support the CSIRO Adaptation Flagship and $50 million to support research led by the Adaptation Research Facility.
This information has been sourced from a range of materials, including: Department of Climate Change (2009) Climate Change Risks to Australia’s Coast – a first pass national assessment; ABS (2007) Australian Demographic Statistics; Solomon, R. J. (1972) Tasmania Sydney: Angus and Robertson; DPIW Tasmania (2006), Draft Climate Strategy for Tasmania ; ABS,1307.6 -Tasmanian State and Regional Indicators , Mar 2008; Australian Government Dept. of Health and Ageing (2003), Human Health and Climate Change in Oceania: A Risk Assessment ; Hobday, AJ and Poloczanska, ES (2008) Chapter 12: Marine fisheries and aquaculture In Stokes CJ & Howden SM (eds) (2008) An overview of climate change adaptation in Australian primary industries -impacts, options and priorities. Prepared for Land and Water Australia by the CSIRO Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship. CSIRO, Canberra; Tasmanian Dept. of Primary Industries, Water and Environment (2004), Indicative mapping of Tasmania’s coastal vulnerability to climate change and sea-level rise, Explanatory Report ; Macquarie University (2006), Macquarie University (2006),Risk Frontiers; Hennessy, K.J., Whetton, P.H., Bathols, J., Hutchinson, M and Sharples, J. (2003) The impact of climate change on snow conditions in Australia. Consultancy report for the Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment, NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service, Australian Greenhouse Office and the Australian Ski Areas Association, CSIRO Atmospheric Research; Value of Principal Agricultural Commodities Produced: Preliminary 750 1.0 2006-07 ABS; ABARE (2007), Australian Fisheries Statistics 2006; Johnson, C., Ling, S., Ross, J., Shepherd, S. and Miller, K., 2005. Establishment of the long-spined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii) in Tasmania: First assessment of potential threats to fisheries . Fisheries Research and Development Corporation (FRDC) Final Report, Project No. 2001/044. University of Tasmania, Tasmanian Aquaculture and Fisheries Institute, School of Zoology.