Australian Capital Territory
Approximately 360,000 people live in the ACT, the home of the nation’s capital Canberra. The ACT is located in the south-east of New South Wales and lies within the Murray Darling Basin.
The following information highlights some of the potential impacts and costs from climate change to the ACT’s industries, infrastructure, environment and people.
Water Supply
Climate change is likely to threaten water supply in the ACT through reduced rainfall and runoff into the ACT’s Cotter and Googong catchments. Annual rainfall could decline by up to 10 per cent by 2030 and 25 per cent by 2070, relative to 1990. Decreases in annual runoff are also projected in the ACT region of up to 20 per cent by 2030 and 50 per cent by 2070.
Water resources are likely to be further stressed due to projected population growth and changes in supply for irrigation, cities, industry and environmental flows.
In response to recent droughts, bushfires and potential climate change, in 2007 the Chief Minister announced a suite of measures to develop a sustainable water supply for Canberra, including enlarging the Cotter Dam, transferring water from the Murrumbidgee River to the Googong Dam and smart metering.
Extreme Events
The ACT is likely to experience rising temperatures and a greater number of extreme hot days as a result of climate change. For example, the annual average number of days over 35°C in Canberra could increase from 5 days currently to up to 26 days by 2070 without global action to reduce emissions.
An increase in temperatures and evaporation is also likely to increase the risk of bushfires. By 2020, the number of days with very high or extreme fire danger could increase from 23 days currently to between 26 and 29 days. By 2050 days with very high or extreme fire danger may increase by up to as many as 38 days.
An increase in the number of days of very high or extreme fire danger poses the threat of an increase in the number, frequency and intensity of bushfires across the region. The Canberra bushfires of 2003 resulted in $350 million damage, with more than 500 houses destroyed and 4 deaths. The losses from the bushfires included $60 million from the almost total destruction of commercial forests and $37 million in damage to the Mount Stromlo Observatory.
Human Health
As the number of very hot days (above 35°C) increase, the number of illnesses and heat-related deaths in the ACT could more than double, with the elderly particularly vulnerable. An estimated 14 people aged 65 and over die annually in Canberra from heat-related deaths (1997-1999 average). This could potentially rise to between 37 and 41 deaths a year by 2020, and 62 to 92 deaths by 2050. The population of the ACT is also susceptible to cold-related deaths with 3 people a year currently dying from the cold. The proportion of people dying from the cold is expected to decrease as temperatures increase, however as population growth is also expected, the total number of cold-related deaths is projected to be between 4 and 9 deaths in 2050.
Other climate change related health risks relevant to the ACT include the impact of severe weather events including bushfires and heatwaves, an increase in food-borne infectious diseases, increases in air pollution and mental health consequences. The adverse health impacts of climate change will be greatest among people on lower incomes, the elderly and the sick.
Natural Environment
Changes in water availability, temperatures, bushfires and changes to the distribution of pest species will impact on the ACT’s natural environments.
Agriculture
Agriculture is particularly sensitive to changes in temperature and the availability of water. These projected changes could directly affect the productivity of the ACT region’s agricultural industries including its regional wine industry.
Adaptation
Given the ACT’s high vulnerability to projected climate change, it is important that appropriate actions are taken by government, businesses, communities and individuals to ensure effective adaptation is possible in a changing environment.
More information
For details on what the Australian Government is doing to prepare for the impacts of climate change, visit www.climatechange.gov.au
See what the ACT Government is doing at: www.environment.act.gov.au
References
This information has been sourced from a range of materials including: Australian Bureau of Statistics (2010) Australian Demographic Statistics; CSIRO/ACE CRC; Bureau of Meteorology (2010) The Australian Baseline Sea Level Monitoring Project; The Garnaut Climate Change Review (2008); ABARES (2011) Australian Commodities, March Quarter 2011.