Western Port
The Western Port region encompasses the local government areas of Bass Coast, Cardinia, Casey, Frankston and Mornington Peninsula Shire.
The region’s population of 550,000 (2006) is projected to grow by about 45 per cent by 2031. It has a coastal climate with relatively mild temperatures and high rainfall compared with other parts of Victoria.
Major regional industries include manufacturing, wholesale and retail trading, construction, and finance and business services. Education, health and community services are also significant, notably in Frankston and Mornington Peninsula Shire, while tourism and hospitality are significant in Bass Coast and Mornington Peninsula.
Climate change impacts
Temperature
- Temperatures in the Western Port region of Victoria are projected to rise over the next 70 years potentially by up to to 3°C.
Sea-level rise
- Sea-level rise in future decades will affect the coastlines of the Western Port region and the effects will be most pronounced during storm events.
- Models that simulate storm surge events suggest that a current 1 in 100 year storm surge could occur every 1 to 4 years by 2070.
- The land area subject to inundation during a 1 in 100 year storm surge event may increase by more than 10 per cent by 2030.
- Such inundation events could affect more than 2000 individuals, more than 1000 dwellings, and approximately $780 million in improved property value in the region.
- Public infrastructure is also at risk, including boating facilities and major thoroughfares such as the Nepean and South Gippsland Highways. Beaches, foreshore reserves and coastal wetland areas throughout the region are likely to be affected as well.
Bushfires
- The number of days of “very high” or “extreme” forest fire risk is projected to increase over the coming decades.
- More than 73,000 individuals and approximately 35,000 properties (including 28,000 dwellings) with a capital improved value of $7.6 billion are situated in bushfire-prone areas.
Flooding
- By 2030, extreme rainfall from events of up to 24 hours in duration is predicted to increase by up to 25 per cent in at-risk areas of the Western Port region. By 2070, extreme rainfall is projected to increase by up to 70 per cent, depending on the location.
- By 2020 inundation from a 1-in-100 yera storm could affect more than 1,000 existing dwellings and property to a value of approximately $780 million.
Rainfall
- Average annual rainfall in the Western Port region is projected to decline by up to 8 per cent by 2030 and by 23 per cent by 2070. Rainfall decreases would potentially occur in all seasons, but especially in winter and spring.
- Drought frequency and intensity are projected to increase.
- While the regional economic and social impacts of changes in the water supply will depend on policy responses, it is likely that water users in the region will face higher water prices in the future.
Decreased rainfall and reduced streamflow will also adversely impact on ecological, amenity and recreational values in the region.
This information has been sourced largely from Kinrade and Preston (2008) Impacts of Climate Change on Settlements in the Western Port Region People, Property and Places.