Australia's Agriculture - Impacts of Climate Change

Climate change impacts
Research activities & reports

The agricultural sector is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change which include increases in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide, decreases in rainfall over much of temperate Australia and increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as drought, fire and flooding.

Impacts will be complex, both biophysically and socio-economically, and will vary greatly by production activity and region. There is potential for some impacts to be positive, such as increased water use efficiency of plants as a result of higher atmospheric CO₂; however this interaction is complex and may be offset by increased temperature and decreased water availability.

Impacts of climate change on the Agricultural sector also have the potential to exacerbate other Natural Resource Management challenges being faced in Australia, both directly through changes in the biophysical environment and indirectly through any structural adjustment which results in land use change. Examples of exacerbated NRM challenges include increased soil erosion as a result of reduced ground cover and increased incidence of extreme wind and rain events; and increased invasion and dominance of woody weeds as a result of declining income reducing the ability of farmers to invest in weed management.

About the sector

Agriculture is an important component of the Australian economy and the life-blood of regional Australia. Farmers manage 60% of the Australian landmass, with the farmgate value of the sector contributing around 3% of GDP. The interdependence between the Australian economy and agriculture was highlighted in the 2002-03 drought when the gross value of agricultural production fell by 19 per cent (to around $32 billion) which reduced GDP by around 1 per cent in 2002-03.

Australian agriculture is strongly export-oriented. In contrast to its relatively small contribution to the broader economy, agriculture accounted for 35% of Australia's merchandise exports over the past 5 years (average $30.8 billion/annum). Imports of food and food products for the same period had an average annual value of $5.7billion, roughly a fifth of the value exported (ABARE).

Climate change impacts

Australian agriculture operates in four main sub-sectors - Intensive Livestock, Extensive Livestock, Extensive Cropping and Intensive Cropping (Horticulture and Viticulture). The table below summarises the likely impacts of climate change and potential adaptive responses for each sub-sector.

Principal direct physical and ecosystem impacts	Potential adaptive response
Intensive livestock
Increased heat stress of stock	Breed improvement, appropriate shade / infrastructure
Increased maintenance animal health - Increased pests and diseases	Develop projections for range changes of pests and diseases, monitoring and early intervention
Reduced supply of feed - likely impacts on both the business's ability to produce pasture & crops and buy in grain.	Increase resilience of plant production systems, adapt annual production cycle to match feed production
Reduced reliability and quality of water supply to stock	Whole of business water planning & optimisation
Extensive livestock
Reduced pasture productivity Reduced herbage quality	Introduce increased drought tolerant species, Increase use of strategic spelling

Changes to the dynamics of pests, diseases and weeds	Increase monitoring & increase adoption of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) practices
Increased soil erosion and nutrient movement into waterways Reduced carrying capacity	Increase use of dietary supplements, implement responsive stocking rate strategies
Increased animal health and husbandry challenges	Breed selection, increase shade trees, monitor pests and diseases for early intervention
Reduced reliability and quality of water supply to stock	Whole of farm water planning & optimisation
Extensive cropping
Increased variability and changes to seasonality of rainfall	Diversify farm enterprise, opportunistic planting
Reduced soil moisture	Zero till practices, crop/cultivar selection
Changes to the dynamics of pests, diseases and weeds	Increase monitoring and adoption of IPM practices
Increased heat shock/stress	Timing of planting, cultivar selection
Reduced grain quality /nutrient content	Match optimised nutrient application to season
Increased yields in higher rainfall areas due to decreased incidence of soil water logging	Integrate cropping into higher rainfall regional business plans
Intensive Cropping (horticulture/viticulture)
Decreased frost frequency changes in crop selection to take into account vernalisation requirements expansion of frost sensitive crops into current frost risk areas	Variety selection, shift in production area
Increased temperature & CO₂ Altered water demand Changes to sowing and harvest time	Secure water supply, improve water management Revise production schedules to maintain yield / meet market demand
Altered range and incidence of pests and diseases	Increase monitoring and adoption of IPM practices
Reduced quality (nutritional, appearance due to water / temp stress, and increased CO₂ concentrations)	Modify fertiliser regime, alter production cycle to avoid extremes

Research activities

The Australian Government has funded a number of reports and research activities that provide information for decision makers on the impacts of climate change on the Agricultural sector.

The Greenhouse Action in Regional Australia: Strategic R&D

The Greenhouse Action in Regional Australia programme builds the capacity of the agriculture and land management sectors to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Under the programme the Australian Government has commissioned a range of research activities focused on providing a stronger basis for the farming sector to respond to the opportunities and challenges associated with climate change include:

Adapting Australian farming systems to climate change: a participatory approach
Exploring the capacity of a regional farming community to adapt to climate change
Establishing a national array of small scale Free Air Carbon dioxide Enriched sites (mini-FACE) to determine the impacts of climate change on wheat production.
Assessing options for structural change within an established agricultural industry to address the challenges of climate change
Climate change in cotton catchment communities - a scoping study.

More information about the Greenhouse Action in Regional Australia programme.

Reports

Climate Change in Rural and Regional Australia
- an overview of Australian Government initiatives aimed at assisting rural and regional Australia to manage the impacts of climate change, harness the benefits of greenhouse gas emissions reductions and sustain natural resources for the long term.
Carbon Dioxide Fertilisation and Climate Change Policy
- an assessment of current understanding of the likely effects of increasing atmospheric CO₂ on plant growth in Australia under a changing climate. It identifies the most important research challenges for the coming years.