Climate Change - Potential Impacts and Costs

NATIONAL FACT SHEET

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For too long we have poured greenhouse pollution into the atmosphere – and we are continuing to do so at an alarming rate. Science tells us that this pollution is causing climate change.

We are already starting to feel the effects of this pollution. And projections show that if we don't act, it will only get worse with changing temperatures and rainfall patterns, more droughts, floods, water shortages, rising sea levels and extreme weather.

Australia – already the driest inhabited continent on Earth – is particularly vulnerable to climate change. The longer we wait to act on climate change, the more it will cost and the worse its effects will be.

Much work still needs to be done to analyse the regional impacts of climate change and to determine which areas might be most vulnerable.

The Australian Government is investing in this effort, through for example, a $44 million commitment to support the CSIRO Adaptation Flagship and $50 million to support research led by the Adaptation Research Facility.

While we need to continue to build our understanding of climate change, we already have some indication of the potential impacts and costs to our industries, environment, people and infrastructure.

The following are just a few examples.

Potential impacts and costs

Natural disasters

Climate change is projected to increase the severity and frequency of many natural disasters, such as bushfires, cyclones, hailstorms and floods. Insured losses from these events are expected to total billions of dollars – 19 of the 20 largest property insurance losses since 1967 have been weather related.

Between 1967 and 1999, bushfires cost the Australian economy around $2.5 billion. From 1960 to 2001, there were 224 fire-related deaths and 4505 injuries.
The 1999 Sydney hailstorm resulted in $1.7 billion in insured losses, 1 death and 500 injuries. 500 people were made homeless, and 24,000 homes and 70,000 motor vehicles were damaged.

More intense extreme weather events are also likely to increase insurance premiums for natural disasters, compounding the problem of under-insurance.

Around 23 per cent of Australian households (1.8 million) are currently without building or contents insurance. As insurance premiums rise, more households may opt out of insuring, putting an added burden on governments and communities when disasters occur.

Drought

An increase in the frequency and severity of drought conditions resulting from climate change will reduce the availability of water.

The frequency of drought may increase by up to 20 cent over most of Australia by 2030 – and up to 40 per cent in south-east Australia and 80 per cent in south-west Australia by 2070.

Restrictions on water use in Australian cities resulting from the current drought have cost around $900 million a year and affected over 80 per cent of Australia's households.
The current drought has contributed to a fall in sheep numbers in 2006-2007 to their lowest level since 1924. It also caused in 2006-2007 a reduction in wheat and barley production by over 50 per cent and a fall in rice production by over 80 per cent on 2005-2006 levels.
The 2006-07 drought is estimated to have reduced the rate of economic growth in Australia by around 0.75 percentage points from what would otherwise be achieved.

Water resources

Water flows into the Murray-Darling Basin, already stressed, are likely to decline by 15 per cent if the temperature warms by 1oC. Reductions in flows of around 50 % are possible by the end of the century. Many other regions are also likely to experience reductions in water flows.

Agricultural production

The changing climate will threaten agricultural production.

Irrigated agriculture in the Murray-Darling Basin could decline by up to 92 per cent.
If the temperature rises by 2oC our national livestock carrying capacity is projected to decrease by 40 per cent.

Human health

Climate change is expected to cause more heat-related deaths and a higher incidence of disease from food and water-borne contaminants.

Temperature rises, combined with population growth, are projected to see 3000 to 5000 more people die each year from heat-related illnesses by 2050, with those living in temperate cities at greater risk.

By 2050, the number of heat-related deaths in our capital cities (Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane and Perth) is expected to more than triple to between 4300-6300 a year.

There are also expected to be around 79,000 additional cases of food poisoning a year by 2050.

The threat from vector borne disease will increase. For example, the transmission zone for Dengue fever may spread south to Brisbane by 2100.

Infrastructure

Climate change is also expected to affect our infrastructure. For example, when combined with expected population growth and internal migration, changes in temperatures and rainfall are expected to increase road maintenance costs increase by 31 per cent by 2100.

Drought – likely to become more frequent as a result of climate change – has the potential to disrupt electricity generation capacity and affect the reliability of electricity supplies. Drought can also lead to increased incidence of footing failure and consequential cracking in buildings.

Coastal zones

As an island continent, Australia is highly vulnerable to sea-level rises resulting from climate change, with significant coastal erosion and damage to infrastructure anticipated.

711,000 addresses and many billions of dollars worth of assets are at risk from rising sea levels and changes in storm surge.
By 2100 sandy beaches could have receded by up to 88 metres.

Flora and fauna

As well as its effects on people, Australia's native plants and animals are also likely to suffer as a result of climate change with a drastic reduction of the extent and quality of their habitats.

A temperature rise of 2.1oC to 2.9oC could see the geographical ranges of 83 per cent of species reduced by at least 50 per cent. A 5oC increase could result in a loss of 90 to 100 per cent of the core habitat for most native vertebrates.

Our ecologically rich sites, such as the Great Barrier Reef, Queensland Wet Tropics, Kakadu Wetlands, Australian Alpine areas, south-western Australia and sub- Antarctic islands are all at risk, with significant loss of biodiversity projected to occur by 2020.

Very conservatively, 90 Australian animal species have so far been identified at risk from climate change, including mammals, insects, birds, reptiles, fish and amphibians from all parts of Australia.

This includes around 1/3rd of those on the national 'endangered' list, and 1/6th of those listed as 'vulnerable'.

Need for action

We must act now to reduce our greenhouse pollution to avoid the worst impacts of climate change and to protect our long-term prosperity, environment and way of life.

We must also act now to adapt to the impacts of climate change we are experiencing from the greenhouse pollution already in the atmosphere.

Tackling the problem will not be easy and there will be costs. But the longer we wait to act, the higher those costs will be.

The best way to minimise those costs is through our comprehensive Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme. This is at the heart of the Government's comprehensive plan to tackle climate change through reducing emissions; helping regions, industries and communities adapt to climate change that we cannot avoid; and helping to shape a global solution.

Further information: http://www.climatechange.gov.au