Climate Change - Potential Impacts and Costs
NORTHERN TERRITORY FACT SHEET
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For too long we have poured greenhouse pollution into the atmosphere – and we are continuing to do so at an alarming rate. Science tells us that this pollution is causing climate change.
We are already starting to feel the effects of this pollution. And projections show that if we don't act, it will only get worse with changing temperatures and rainfall patterns, more droughts, floods, water shortages, rising sea levels and extreme weather.
Australia – already the driest inhabited continent on Earth – is particularly vulnerable to climate change. The longer we wait to act on climate change, the more it will cost and the worse its effects will be.
Impacts and potential costs
With a population of 217,559, the Northern Territory is the least populous of our States or Territories, representing 1 per cent of our total population. The majority of the population lives in Darwin, with numerous remote settlements and a relatively high proportion of Indigenous people (31 per cent).
The Northern Territory has two distinctive climate zones. The Top End, including Darwin, has a tropical climate with high humidity and two seasons, the wet (November to April) and dry season (May to October). The central region is the desert centre of the country, which includes Alice Springs and Uluru National Park, and is semi-arid with little rain usually falling during the hottest months from October to March.
The Territory is already experiencing a rise in average temperature and there are other changes that will affect natural systems and human settlements, particularly remote and Indigenous settlements.
The following are just a few examples of the potential impacts and costs to the Territory's industries, infrastructure, environment and people*.
Extreme events
The Top End is likely to become hotter and wetter and the Centre hotter and drier. Although little change in annual rainfall is expected, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones or storm surges is likely to increase.
With the hotter drier conditions in the Centre, there is likely to be more frequent and severe droughts and the increasing risk of bushfire.
A rise in average temperatures of 2 or 3oC and an increased number of very hot days over 35 degrees Celsius for longer periods of time will have a serious impact on fragile ecosystems and may cause irreparable damage for iconic sites.
Climate change could cause an increase in the number of days in Darwin over 35oC from 11 a year to 28-69 by 2030 and 49-308 by 2070.
Rising sea levels, increased frequency of tropical cyclones and extreme weather events are likely to significantly impact on biodiversity, critical habitats, tourism, food and cultural values important to the traditional land owners.
Industry losses
The Northern Territory's economy is based on agriculture, tourism and mining.
Agriculture
Climate change is likely to put at risk a substantial proportion of agricultural production, particularly cattle production in the Centre. The Territory's cattle industry currently exports $218 million each year but farm production could decline by 19.5 per cent by 2030 and by 33.2 per cent by 2070.
Tourism
Iconic destinations such as the Kakadu National Park World Heritage Property make the Northern Territory a popular tourist destination. In 2005-06, 1.38 million people visited the Northern Territory and spent more than $1.5 billion. Severe climate change impacts would not only affect the tourism industry but the communities in this region that rely on it.
Tourist icons
Kakadu National Park
Rises in average temperatures of 2 to 3oC could lead to the loss of 80 per cent of freshwater wetlands in Kakadu.
Coastal zone
It is plausible that uncontrolled climate change could see global sea level rise of 1 metre or more by 2100 and more intense storms, threatening coastal housing and infrastructure. Nearly 900 coastal buildings, together with harbour and port facilities, are vulnerable to sea-level rise and associated changes.
Human health
As the number of very hot days (above 35oC) increases more people are likely to suffer from heat-related illnesses and death, and tropical diseases may become more common, with the elderly particularly vulnerable.
Currently heat-related deaths in those over 65 years could rise from 2 per year to 37-126 by 2050.
Warmer temperatures and increased rainfall variation are likely to increase the intensity of food and water borne diseases.
Indigenous people living in remote communities are at increased risk with the number of Aboriginal children being admitted to hospital with diarrhoea likely to increase by 10 per cent by 2050.
* Note: Much work still needs to be done to analyse regional climate change impacts, and determine which areas might be most vulnerable. The Government is investing in this effort, through for example $44 million to support the CSIRO Adaptation Flagship and $50 million to support the Adaptation Research Facility.
Need for action
We must act now to reduce our greenhouse pollution to avoid the worst impacts of climate change and to protect our long-term prosperity, environment and way of life.
We must also act now to adapt to the impacts of climate change we are experiencing from the greenhouse pollution already in the atmosphere.
Tackling the problem will not be easy and there will be costs. But the longer we wait to act, the higher those costs will be.
The best way to minimise those costs is through our comprehensive Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme. This is at the heart of the Government's comprehensive plan to tackle climate change through reducing emissions; helping regions, industries and communities adapt to climate change that we cannot avoid; and helping to shape a global solution.
Further information: http://www.climatechange.gov.au
