Climate Change - Potential Impacts and Costs
VICTORIA FACT SHEET
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For too long we have poured greenhouse pollution into the atmosphere – and we are continuing to do so at an alarming rate. Science tells us that this pollution is causing climate change.
We are already starting to feel the effects of this pollution. And projections show that if we don't act, it will only get worse with changing temperatures and rainfall patterns, more droughts, floods, water shortages, rising sea levels and extreme weather.
Australia – already the driest inhabited continent on Earth – is particularly vulnerable to climate change. The longer we wait to act on climate change, the more it will cost and the worse its effects will be.
Impacts and potential costs
Victoria is the smallest mainland state in area but the most densely populated and urbanised. It is the second most populous Australian state after New South Wales, with an estimated population of around 5.2 million as of June 2007.
Victoria contains many diverse areas, ranging from the wet, temperate climate of Gippsland in the southeast to the snow-covered Victorian alpine areas. There are extensive semi-arid plains to the west and northwest.
The following are just a few examples of the potential impacts and costs to the State's industries, infrastructure, environment and people*.
Extreme events
Victoria is expected to become warmer with more hot days and less cold nights resulting in increased evaporation rates, increased bush fire risk, less snowfall in alpine areas, and more frequent and severe droughts.
Droughts are projected to increase up to 40 per cent by 2070 in south-east Australia. Victoria's annual average rainfall is projected to decline by up to 25 per cent.
Climate change is likely to increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events (inland and flash flooding) putting infrastructure such as power, water, transport, communications, buildings and settlements at greater risk.
Bushfire risk
Victoria is likely to experience an increased bush fire risk and to have more 'extreme' fire danger days, an increase of 12-38 per cent by 2020 and 20-135 per cent by 2050.
The Great Divide fires of 2006-07 were the longest running fires in Victoria and resulted in $14 million insured losses.
Agriculture
Uncontrolled climate change could put a substantial proportion of agricultural production estimated at $8.4 billion for 2006-07 at risk. There is a projected decline in Victorian farm production.
Livestock suffering heat stress, reduced stone fruit yields in warmer winters and an increased prevalence of plant diseases, weeds and pests will all impact on agricultural production.
Comparing production under climate change relative to 'what would otherwise be', and assuming no mitigation or adaptation, Victorian wheat production will be lower by 9.6 per cent by 2030 and by 13.4 per cent by 2050.
Similarly, sheep production is likely to decline by 7.1 per cent by 2030 and by 12.9 per cent by 2070; beef production by 2.4 per cent by 2030 and by 6.5 per cent by 2050; and dairy production by 4.6 per cent by 2030 and by 10 per cent by 2050.
Victoria's regional agricultural profits from the Lower Murray irrigation sector are likely to decrease by 19 per cent under moderate climate change scenarios.
Coastal zone
It is plausible that uncontrolled climate change could see global sea level rise of 1 metre or more by 2100, and more intense storms threatening coastal housing and infrastructure.
More than 80,000 coastal buildings and infrastructure are at risk from the projected sea level rise, coastal flooding and erosion.
Sea level rise, more frequent and severe storm surges will damage the coastal environment and coastal infrastructure in the Western Port region.
Eighteen per cent of the Western Port Region is likely to be affected by inundation or overland flow paths. It is estimated that 18,000 properties, valued at almost $2 billion are vulnerable to flood events.
The area of land subject to inundation by storm surge is likely to increase by 4-15 per cent by 2030 and 16-63 per cent by 2070. It could affect more than 2000 individuals, more than 1000 dwellings and approximately $780 million in improved property value.
A 1-in-100 year storm surge is likely to happen every 1 to 4 years by 2070.
Human health
Increases in temperatures could result in Melbourne experiencing more hot days over 35oC for longer periods of time, currently 9 days but expected to increase to 11-13 days by 2030.
As the number of very hot days (above 35oC) increases more people are likely to suffer from heat-related illnesses and death, with the elderly particularly vulnerable.
Currently 289 people aged 65 and over die annually in Melbourne from heat-related deaths. This could jump to between 566 and 604 a year by 2020, and 980 to 1318 by 2050.
Warmer conditions may also help spread vector-borne, water-borne and food-borne disease further south. These health issues could increase pressure on medical and hospital services.
Indigenous people living in remote communities are at increased risk with the number of Aboriginal children being admitted to hospital with diarrhoea likely to increase by 10 per cent by 2050.
Infrastructure
Enhancing infrastructure to secure water supply could double the price of water for Melbourne and cost $4.9 billion for new water infrastructure.
Reduced rainfall and runoff threaten urban water supplies by increases in demand due to population growth and climate-driven reductions in water supply. Reduced rainfall and higher evaporation threaten to reduce urban water supply by 7 – 35 per cent.
Drought – likely to become more frequent as a result of climate change – has the potential to disrupt electricity generation capacity and affect the reliability of electricity suppliers. Increases in temperatures, particularly in the summer months will increase energy demand.
The potential for increased extreme storm events may cause significant damage to storm water, drainage and sewer infrastructure, and to electricity transmission infrastructure.
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Alpine regions
Climate change is expected to result in shorter, drier winters which will have significant impacts on Victoria's unique alpine region, its ecosystems and the plant and animal species that live there, many of which are endangered.
Reductions in snow cover, increased risks of bush fires and invasion of weeds and other pests will also have significant impacts. Reduced snow cover of 10-40 per cent by 2020 will have significant consequences for alpine tourism. Alpine resorts are economic drivers for surrounding communities.
Biodiversity
Victoria's alpine region plays host to a variety of plant and animal species, many of which are endangered. Species such as the Mountain Pygmy Possum which are adapted to highest elevations and coldest environments will have nowhere to retreat to as the climate warms.
An increase in sea temperature of just 1-2oC could lead to the local extinction of up to 14 per cent of marine macro invertebrate species within Victoria. These threatened species are limited to the cool temperate waters of south-eastern Australia.
* Note: Much work still needs to be done to analyse regional climate change impacts, and determine which areas might be most vulnerable. The Government is investing in this effort, through for example $44 million to support the CSIRO Adaptation Flagship and $50 million to support research led by the Adaptation Research Facility.
Need for action
We must act now to reduce our greenhouse pollution to avoid the worst impacts of climate change and to protect our long-term prosperity, environment and way of life.
We must also act now to adapt to the impacts of climate change we are experiencing from the greenhouse pollution already in the atmosphere.
Tackling the problem will not be easy and there will be costs. But the longer we wait to act, the higher those costs will be.
The best way to minimise those costs is through our comprehensive Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme. This is at the heart of the Government's comprehensive plan to tackle climate change through reducing emissions; helping regions, industries and communities adapt to climate change that we cannot avoid; and helping to shape a global solution.
Further information: http://www.climatechange.gov.au
