think climate. think change.
Department of Climate Change
Written on behalf of the Australian Greenhouse Office by Steven Crimp, Jacqueline Balston, Andrew Ash
AND
Linda Anderson-Berry, Terry Done, Romy Greiner, David Hilbert, Mark Howden, Roger Jones, Chris Stokes, Natalie Stoeckl, Bob Sutherst and Penny Whetton
Australian Greenhouse Office, 2004
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This study was undertaken to determine the scope and focus for an integrated assessment of climate change impacts on, and adaptation options for, the Cairns Great Barrier Reef (CGBR) region. To achieve this, the authors employed both technical expertise and regional stakeholder input.
This document describes the study objectives and the process used to meet these objectives, and provides an overview of the CGBR region, the views of technical experts on potential climate change impacts, stakeholder prioritisation of impacts and adaptation options, a list of perceived knowledge gaps, and a recommended structure for a future integrated assessment in the region.
The CGBR region is geographically diverse, encompassing near-coastal reefs, coastal lowlands, montane tropical forests and water-limited savanna hinterlands. Through the stakeholder consultation process, the authors have been able to identify the most appropriate geographical coverage for an integrated study, as well as key industries in the region potentially affected by climate change. The study region includes the local government areas of Cairns, Johnstone, Herberton, Eacham, Atherton, Cardwell, Hinchinbrook, Mareeba and Douglas, as well as the adjacent Great Barrier Reef.
More than 150 key stakeholders were invited to two workshops, designed to provide information related to projected climate change in the region, and to seek input on potential adaptation strategies, and synergies, barriers and knowledge gaps affecting implementation of these strategies in the region.
At the workshops, stakeholders completed a series of matrices designed to:
The CGBR region comprises only 4.4% of Queensland’s land area, but accounts for more than 11% of the value of its agricultural output and more than 20% of its accommodation takings. Almost 10% of the region’s workforce is employed within the Agricultural, Fishing, Forestry and Hunting sector and a large section of the workforce is employed in sectors related to tourism.
The extent to which projected climate changes will have an impact on industries within the region (both positive and negative) determines, to some degree, the level of adaptation required. The magnitude of impacts will depend on both the physical climate effects, and the way in which the community responds and adapts to climate change. Communities and individuals are affected by environmental hazards in different ways because they differ in their capacity to anticipate, cope with, and adapt to (or recover from) ‘stressful’ events.
The socio-economic assessment of the CGBR region undertaken as part of this study identified communities that may be particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The profile generated also highlights economic sectors where the population may more readily undertake adaptation to climate change.
Almost all activities identified by the stakeholders have strong climatic dependencies,with temperature and rainfall identified as the most significant climatic variables across all industries and sectors. Most stakeholders considered extreme events, extended periods of extreme humidity and enhanced evaporation as variables of somewhat lesser significance for the activities and sectors identified in the CGBR region.
The range of adaptation options suggested for the CGBR region is indicative of the diversity and sensitivities of each system. The stakeholder feedback clearly indicated that natural systems in this region are far more susceptible to irreversible damage from climate change than are human influenced systems.
The workshop participants prioritised the importance of a variety of climate change impacts on the CGBR region. The potential impact of climate change on water quality and availability was identified as being of primary importance to both natural and human systems. The next priority issue was the potential impact of climate change on the Great Barrier Reef, in terms of both the physiological effects of increased ocean temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations and, more importantly, the secondary impacts on tourism in the CGBR region.
The impact of climate change on regional agriculture (particularly on the beef, dairy, horticulture and sugar industries) was identified as the third most important area in which climate change should be considered.
The fourth most prominent sectoral issue affected by climate change was the control of pests and weeds. This was considered as an issue of importance both for primary producers and for the sustainable functioning of natural ecosystems in the region.
The impact of climate change on human health, coastal development,wetland and rainforest conservation, and fisheries and forestry productivity represented the remaining considerations of importance.
A significant number of knowledge gaps were identified during the workshop process. Many of these represent important barriers to understanding fully the impacts of projected climate change and hence to developing appropriate adaptation measures. While many of the knowledge gaps were specific to an industry or jurisdictional responsibility, efforts were made to aggregate them into a number of generic groups. This process identified the need to:
In order to capture non-climate drivers and to synthesise sectoral knowledge of climate change impacts and adaptation options in an appropriate regional socio-economic context, a detailed climate change study for the CGBR region, following an integrated assessment approach as outlined by the IPCC (2001), should be conducted. The integrated assessment would include:
It is recommended that a Steering Committee be established to oversee the development and implementation of an integrated climate change assessment of the CGBR region. The Steering Committee should include representatives from relevant local industries, the community, local councils and State and Australian government agencies. The Steering Committee would oversee a research and development team to ensure delivery on its stated outputs, and would be responsible for implementing (in the first year of the assessment) those adaptation strategies identified in the study as relatively simple, cost-effective and timely for the CGBR region.
In conclusion, this study has identified a comprehensive list of regional stakeholders and informed them about potential impacts of climate change in the CGBR region. It has collated and synthesised existing socio-economic data, and prioritised climate change impacts relevant to the region. These activities and outputs have been used to determine a recommended approach to the development of an integrated assessment of climate change in the CGBR region.
