think climate. think change.
Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of the Environment and Water Resources, 2007
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This document analyses trends in Australia's greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 to 2005 and greenhouse indicators developed for the National Greenhouse Strategy.
The Inventories used for this analysis have been compiled according to the Kyoto accounting provisions relating to Australia's internationally agreed greenhouse emissions target. The accounting provisions for Kyoto differ from those under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), most notably in the way forest sinks are treated.
Under the Kyoto accounting provisions relating to Australia's internationally agreed target, Australia's net greenhouse gas emissions in 2005 totalled 559.1 Mt of carbon dioxide equivalent. Total net emissions were 2.2% (11.9 Mt) higher in 2005 than in 1990. There was virtually no change in emissions from 2004 to 2005.
Between 1990 and 2005:
As a result of these changes, the CO2 share of total emissions declined from 73.6% to 73.4%.
The sectors showing the greatest increase in emissions from 1990 to 2005 were Stationary Energy, Transport and Industrial Processes (Table S1 and Figure S1). Emissions from Agriculture were almost unchanged and emissions from Waste and Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry were lower in 2005 than in 1990. The Solvent and Other Product Use sector does not appear in this analysis because all emissions from the sector are non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), which are not assigned a global warming potential.
Within the Stationary Energy subsector, electricity generation accounted for the majority of the increase in emissions. Within the Transport subsector, emissions from passenger vehicles, trucks and light commercial vehicles accounted for most of the increase, along with passenger aircraft emissions, which were 76% higher in 2005 than in 1990. The only transport emissions to decline were those from shipping. Growth in Fugitive Emissions from venting in coal, oil and natural gas production was partly offset by a decline in leakage from natural gas distribution, by a reduction in flaring and by capture of coal mine waste gas.
| Sector | 1990 Mt CO2-e | 2005 Mt CO2-e | Change Mt CO2-e | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Energy | 287.0 | 391.0 | 104.1 | 36.3% |
| Stationary Energy | 196.0 | 279.4 | 83.4 | 42.6% |
| Transport | 61.9 | 80.4 | 18.5 | 29.9% |
| Fugitive Emissions | 29.1 | 31.2 | 2.1 | 7.3% |
| 2 Industrial Processes | 25.3 | 29.5 | 4.2 | 16.5% |
| 3 Solvent and Other Product Use(a) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 4 Agriculture | 87.7 | 87.9 | 0.2 | 0.2% |
| 5 Land Use, Land Use Change & Forestry | 128.9 | 33.7 | -95.2 | -73.9% |
| 6 Waste | 18.3 | 17.0 | -1.3 | -6.9% |
| Total net emissions | 547.1 | 559.1 | 11.9 | 2.2% |
Figure S1. Net CO2-equivalent emissions by sector, 1990-2005
Emissions from the Industrial Processes sector in 2005 were 16.5% higher than in 1990. The largest increases were from the consumption of halocarbons. Perfluorocarbon emissions from aluminium production and CO2 emissions from iron and steel were lower in 2005 than in 1990.
In the Agriculture sector an increase in emissions associated with crop production and savanna burning was partly offset by a decline in livestock emissions (largely due to a decline in sheep numbers).
The Kyoto accounting provisions take into account emissions from deforestation, and the carbon sequestered in reforestation activities (i.e. plantations) established since 1990.
Strictly speaking, the credit for carbon sequestered in such plantations will be brought to account in 2008-12 only. However, the inclusion of an estimate in pre-2008 Inventories facilitates an understanding of Australia's emissions trends in relation to the 108% target.
Net emissions from this sector were 74% lower in 2005 than in 1990 due to a significant reduction in the area of forest conversion, but were 10% higher than in 2003, which was the low point of the period.
Waste sector emissions were 6.9% lower in 2005 than in 1990 despite an increase in population, largely because of the effect of recovery of waste gas from landfills and wastewater facilities.
The greenhouse indicators include three macro indicators-total net national emissions, emissions per capita, and emissions per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The trends in these macro indicators are presented in Table S2.
| Emissions (Mt CO2-e) | Tonnes CO2-e/capita | kg CO2-e/$GDP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 547.1 | 32.3 | 0.99 |
| 1991 | 524.9 | 30.6 | 0.95 |
| 1992 | 513.4 | 29.5 | 0.93 |
| 1993 | 504.0 | 28.7 | 0.88 |
| 1994 | 505.7 | 28.5 | 0.85 |
| 1995 | 507.5 | 28.3 | 0.82 |
| 1996 | 510.7 | 28.1 | 0.79 |
| 1997 | 518.6 | 28.2 | 0.77 |
| 1998 | 542.6 | 29.2 | 0.77 |
| 1999 | 540.0 | 28.7 | 0.73 |
| 2000 | 551.5 | 29.0 | 0.72 |
| 2001 | 558.8 | 29.0 | 0.71 |
| 2002 | 566.6 | 29.0 | 0.70 |
| 2003 | 545.1 | 27.6 | 0.65 |
| 2004 | 559.1 | 28.0 | 0.64 |
| 2005 | 559.1 | 27.7 | 0.62 |
Total emissions were at their lowest point in 1993 and they were at a high point in 2002. In 2005 they were 2.2% higher than in 1990.
Emissions increased at an average rate of 0.1% per annum over the period while population increased at an average of 1.2% per annum, so emissions per capita declined at an average rate of 1.0% per annum. Emissions per capita were 32.3 tonnes CO2-e in 1990 and 27.7 tonnes CO2-e (14.4% lower) in 2005.
Economic activity grew at an average rate of 3.3% per annum between 1990 and 2005. Over the period emissions per dollar of GDP declined by 36.8%.
The falling trend in emissions per dollar of GDP is related to a number of factors, including:
The reduction in Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry emissions accounted for about 79% of the decline in emissions per dollar of GDP, and the increasing recovery of CH4 in the Fugitive Emissions and Waste sectors accounted for another 2%. Further analysis would be necessary to establish the relative contribution of the other factors to the decline in emissions intensity of the economy.
