What next after Copenhagen?
Ms Louise Hand
FAS, International Division, Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency
Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA), Adelaide
23 February 2010
Down the presentation slides in a PDF file (280 kB)
Copenhagen Accord achievements
- 2 degrees Celsius goal
- Annex 1 countries committed to quantify economy-wide emission reduction targets by 2020; non-Annex 1 countries to implement mitigation actions, reporting every 2 years
- Framework to monitor implementation that will provide transparency and confidence
- Specific agreement on scale of finance
- USD 30 billion over next 3 years
- Long term goal USD 100 billion a year by 2020
- Technology mechanism to drive innovation
- Establishment of a mechanism to support REDD+ activities, supported by financial resources from developed countries
Copenhagen Accord supporters
- 103 countries have expressed their support for the Accord (38 Annex 1 and 65 non-Annex I)
- Including all members of the Major Economies Forum
- 69 countries have submitted 2020 targets (Annex I) and nationally appropriate mitigation actions (non-Annex I).
- Australia
- Belarus
- Canada
- Croatia
- EU and its member states
- Iceland
- Japan
- Kazakhstan
- Liechtenstein
- Monaco
- New Zealand
- Norway
- Russian Federation
- United States of America
- Albania
- Armenia
- Bahamas
- Bangladesh
- Benin
- Bhutan
- Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Botswana
- Brazil
- Cambodia
- Central African Republic
- Chile
- China
- Colombia
- Costa Rica
- Cote d’Ivoire
- Democratic Republic of the Congo
- Djibouti
- Ethiopia
- Fiji
- Georgia
- Ghana
- Guatemala
- Guyana
- India
- Indonesia
- Israel
- Jordan
- Lao PDR
- Lesotho
- Macedonia
- Madagascar
- Malawi
- Maldives
- Mali
- Marshall Islands
- Mexico
- Moldova
- Mongolia
- Montenegro
- Morocco
- Namibia
- Nepal
- Palau
- Panama
- Papua New Guinea
- Peru
- Republic of Congo
- Republic of Korea
- Rwanda
- Samoa
- San Marino
- Serbia
- Sierra Leone
- Singapore
- South Africa
- Tanzania
- Togo
- Trinidad and Tobago
- Tunisia
- United Arab Emirates
- United Republic of Tanzania
- Uruguay
Collectively, countries with targets and actions in the Copenhagen Accord account for nearly 80 per cent of global emissions...
- 79.3% aggregate emissions — countries with targets and actions in the Copenhagen Accord
- 20.7% aggregate emissions — rest of world
Source: Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) Version 6.0. (Washington, DC: World Resources Institute, 2009).
Total GHG emissions in 2005 (excludes land use change).
...and over 85 per cent of the global economy.
- 87.9% aggregate GDP — countries with targets and actions in Copenhagen Accord
- 12.1% aggregate GDP — rest of world
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database October 2009 Edition.
2008 Gross Domestic Product, current prices.
Action around the world
- Both developed and developing countries recognise the threat of climate change and the need to act
- Many countries have significant domestic measures
- Over 30 countries already have an emissions trading scheme
- China has a target to reduce carbon intensity by 40-45 percent per unit of GDP by 2020
- India has a target to reduce emissions intensity by 20-25 percent per unit of GDP by 2020
- Indonesia: emissions target and developing MRV framework
IPCC Terminology
Confidence terminology and degrees of
| Terminology | Degree of confidence in being correct |
|---|
| Very high confidence |
At least 9 out of 10 chance |
| High confidence |
About 8 out of 10 chance |
| Medium confidence |
About 5 out of 10 chance |
| Low confidence |
About 2 out of 10 chance |
| Very low confidence |
Less than 1 out of 10 chance |
Likelihood terminology and probabilities of
| Terminology | Likelihood of the occurrence/ outcome |
|---|
| Virtually certain |
> 99% probability |
| Extremely likely |
> 95% probability |
| Very likely |
> 90% probability |
| Likely |
> 66% probability |
| More likely than not |
> 50% probability |
| About as likely as not |
33 to 66% probability |
| Unlikely |
|
| Very unlikely |
|
| Extremely unlikely |
|
| Exceptionally unlikely |
|
Questions?