***Check Against Delivery

I would like to acknowledge the presence of Dr Graham Jacobs, Minister for Water in the West Australian Government, and thank him for his interest and support for the project at this launch today.

I also acknowledge the traditional owners – past and present – of the land on which we meet (Noongar people of south-west Western Australia).

I am very pleased to be here today for the release of the CSIRO South-West Western Australia Sustainable Yields Report.   

As some of you may know, the south-west Western Australia assessment is one of three which the Council of Australian Governments agreed in March 2008 should be undertaken.  The other two, which cover Tasmania and northern Australia, have already been released.

These projects build on the successful Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable Yields project, released in 2008.

They are important because they provide, for the first time, a comprehensive scientific assessment of future water yield in all major water systems across the country.

We now have a national picture of current and future water availability in the context of climate change. 

Importantly, this picture is provided in a consistent form that can be utilised by stakeholders ranging from state and Commonwealth governments, regional water authorities and local government, through to universities, irrigation corporations, and family farms. 

Turning to today’s launch, this south-west Western Australia report represents the most comprehensive assessment of water yields and demands to 2030 ever undertaken in this region.  The Australian Government provided $5.2 million to fund this project under our $12.9 billion, ten-year Water for the Future initiative. 

The report projects changes to future water yields, having regard to climate change and future development.  It covers surface water catchments and groundwater management areas from Geraldton stretching south to Albany. 

In a nutshell, the findings of this report are sobering.

Indeed, they are especially sobering given that the South West has already experienced a 10-15 per cent decline in average rainfall since the mid-1970s, and an even bigger decline in streamflows in northern catchments of around 50 per cent over this same period.

Recent developments in climate science indicate that this 35 year change in water resource availability across the South West is at least partially due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases.

And meanwhile we know that the planet is warming. 

In January, the Bureau of Meteorology released its 2009 Annual Climate Statement.

It found 2009 was the second hottest year in Australia on record and ended our hottest decade. In Australia, each decade since the 1940s has been warmer than the last.

This is not a flash in the pan. It continues the trend. Globally, 14 of the 15 warmest years on record occurred between 1995 and 2009.

In fact, WA has just had its hottest summer on record.  According to the Bureau of Meteorology, the average of all the minimum and maximum temperatures recorded across the state this summer were a record 1.3°C higher than the long-term summer average of 28.3ºC.  .

This report projects that by 2030, there will be a further marked decrease in river flows and surface water yields across south-west Western Australia. 

Under a median climate scenario, surface water yields are predicted to decrease by 24 per cent, relative to the last 30 years or so. 

And whilst the CSIRO’s best-case projection under the climate models is a reduction of just 4 per cent, the worst-case projection is a much more worrying 49 per cent reduction.

So even under the most optimistic climate scenarios modelled in this report, south west Western Australia it is set to become drier .

The report also projects that groundwater availability will also decline, although not as much as the projected reduction in surface water availability.   Across the South West, groundwater yields may decrease by about 2 per cent or by as much as 7 per cent if the climate becomes especially dry.

But given the importance of groundwater resources for Western Australia, even these more moderate groundwater projections are concerning.

Under an extreme dry future, water yields in three important groundwater areas – including the Gnangara aquifer which supplies tap water to Perth – could decline by over one third by 2030.

Groundwater-dependent ecosystems, including some wetlands and vegetation communities, have already been adversely affected by a drying climate and the risk of additional stress due to future climate change and development is set out in the report. 

The report also projects significant gaps between water yields and demands by about 2020 in areas where surface water resources are used for irrigated agriculture. 

In particular, the Harvey and Collie surface water management areas have a high likelihood of developing a surface water deficit due to the combination of growing demand and reducing supplies.

One of the important products from this project is new, working models for assessing the deficits and surpluses of water under different scenarios for over 40 regions in the south-west. 

So as new information comes to hand, the models developed under this project provide the capability for further assessment of the impacts of climate change and future development over time.

This capability will continue to deliver value for Western Australia for many years to come. .

In Western Australia, you have been quick to recognise the changing climate over the last 35 years. 

Western Australia should be commended for responding early and appropriately by investing in desalination and water recycling, by applying water restrictions and demand management strategies, and by improved water planning.

This timely action will stand you in good stead as we learn to adapt to a future with even less water than we have today.  

Under the Australian Government’s Water for the Future initiative, a key priority is to secure our water supplies in preparation for this future with less water.

Nation-wide, the Rudd Government is investing in projects to use water more efficiently, and to invest in new sources of water, such as recycling, desalination and stormwater harvesting, that reduce reliance on traditional sources of drinking water.  The Government is also investing in the new Desalination Centre of Excellence, based here in Perth’s Murdoch University.

We are helping irrigation communities, here and elsewhere, to modernise leaky-old irrigation systems and improve water use efficiency and productivity.

And through the Bureau of Meteorology, we are investing in a much improved national water information system.  This will allow us to account for water as it moves through the landscape, and will include a new water resource forecasting service to sit alongside the Bureau’s existing weather forecasts.

All of these measures will contribute to making the transition that we all need to make towards a future with less water under climate change.

This report is crucial for Western Australia. 

Based as it is on the best scientific information available, this report will inform key water planning and management decisions for Perth and the entire south-west of the state

It provides the Western Australian Government with the crucial information it needs to ensure water for irrigators, industry, households, cities and towns and the environment as we learn to live with the impacts of climate change.    

In closing, I would like to thank CSIRO for their work on this project which has delivered such an important resource for water resource managers now and into the future.