Fact sheet: Australia's emissions projections 2010
Australia releases official projections of its greenhouse gas emissions annually. These projections provide a full update of Australia’s emissions projections including:
- a projection of emissions for the Kyoto Protocol first commitment period of 2008-12
- a projection of emissions to 2020, which illustrates the ‘abatement challenge’ Australia faces in meeting its 2020 targets, and
- indicative emission projections to 2030.
These projections are made on the basis of policies and measures in place to reduce emissions. Therefore, they forecast Australia’s emissions in the absence of a carbon price.
The Australian Government has reiterated its intention to introduce a carbon price in Australia to reduce emissions and meet the 2020 target. These projections will be updated as domestic and international climate change policies evolve.
Kyoto period (2008–12)
Australia remains on track to meet its Kyoto Protocol target of limiting emissions to 108 per cent of 1990 levels. Australia’s emissions are projected to average 582 Mt CO2-e per year over 2008–12, which is 106 per cent of 1990 levels.
2020
Without further policy action, Australia’s emissions are projected to continue to increase. In 2020, emissions are projected to reach 690 Mt CO2-e, or 24 per cent above 2000 levels.
Australia’s emissions trends, 1990 – 2020
Note: Trajectories to the 2020 target range are illustrative.
Australia’s emissions, 1990 to 2020
| | 1990 | 2000 | Kyoto period average
2008-12 | 2020 |
|---|
| |
Mt CO2-e |
Mt CO2-e |
Mt CO2-e |
Increase on 1990 (%) |
Mt CO2-e |
Increase on 2000 (%) |
| Energy |
286 |
361 |
421 |
47% |
498 |
38% |
| Stationary |
195 |
251 |
294 |
51% |
332 |
33% |
| Transport |
62 |
75 |
85 |
37% |
97 |
29% |
| Fugitive |
29 |
35 |
43 |
46% |
69 |
97% |
| Industrial processes |
24 |
26 |
31 |
29% |
40 |
56% |
| Agriculture |
87 |
94 |
86 |
- 0.4% |
94 |
- 0.2% |
| Waste |
19 |
15 |
15 |
-21% |
16 |
5% |
| Deforestation and forestry |
132 |
62 |
28 |
-79% |
42 |
-32% |
| Deforestation |
132 |
72 |
49 |
-63% |
49 |
-33% |
| Forestry |
0 |
-11 |
-21 |
n/a |
-7 |
-36% |
| Total |
548 |
558 |
582 |
6% |
690 |
24% |
Abatement challenge
These updated projections represent the starting point for Australia’s ‘abatement challenge’: the amount of abatement that additional policies need to generate to achieve our national emissions targets in 2020.
- To achieve the 5 per cent reduction target (against 2000 levels), Australia would need to reduce emissions by an additional 160 Mt CO2-e in 2020.
- To achieve the 15 per cent reduction target, Australia would need to reduce emissions by an additional 216 Mt CO2-e in 2020.
- To achieve the 25 per cent reduction target, Australia would need to reduce emissions by an additional 272 Mt CO2-e.
The abatement challenge in 2020
| | 2000 | 2020 | Abatement challenge |
|---|
| |
Mt CO2-e |
Mt CO2-e |
Mt CO2-e |
| Baseline emissions |
558 |
690 |
|
| -5% target |
|
530 |
160 |
| -15% target |
|
474 |
216 |
| -25% target |
|
418 |
272 |
2030
Projected emissions trends to 2030 show that, without further policy action, Australia’s emissions will continue to increase. Emissions in 2030 are projected to reach 803 Mt CO2-e, or 44 per cent above 2000 levels. The projection to 2030 is considered indicative as there is greater uncertainty surrounding trends in this sector after 2020.
Current policies and measures
The projections incorporate the impact of current policies and measures in place to reduce emissions.
The total impact of existing policies and measures has been estimated at 56 Mt CO2-e on average per year over the Kyoto period. By 2020, it is projected that abatement from these measures would have increased to 109 Mt CO2-e. The Renewable Energy Target and energy efficiency measures are the main contributors to Australia’s abatement efforts.
View Australia’s emissions projections 2010
Download
Fact sheet: Australia's emissions projections 2010 (PDF 300 KB)