Australia releases official projections of its greenhouse gas emissions annually. The 2012 projections provide analysis of Australia's greenhouse gas emissions profile to 2030, incorporating the impact of carbon pricing on Australia's emissions.
- The Australia's emissions projections 2012 fact sheet (PDF 1.1 MB) provides an overview of the projections
- Australia's emissions projections 2012 (PDF 2.3 MB)
- Data for graphs in the paper (XLS 3.1 MB)
Australia remains on track to meet its Kyoto Protocol commitment of limiting emissions to 108 per cent of 1990 levels. The 2012 projections forecast that Australia's emissions are likely to have averaged 575 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2-e) per year over the Kyoto period (2008–12), which is 105 per cent of the 1990 level. Without the carbon pricing mechanism or Carbon Farming Initiative (CFI), Australia's emissions are forecast to be 693 Mt CO2-e in 2020 and 786 Mt CO2-e in 2030.
- To achieve Australia's unconditional emissions target of a 5 per cent reduction on 2000 levels by 2020, Australia faces an abatement challenge of 155 Mt CO2-e in 2020.
With the carbon pricing mechanism in place, Australia's net emissions are projected to be limited to 537 Mt CO2-e in 2020 and 396 Mt CO2-e in 2030 (based on Australia's unconditional 2020 and 2050 targets). The mechanism is the means by which Australia will meet its greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.
- The carbon pricing mechanism is projected to drive 155 Mt CO2-e of abatement in 2020. Of this, 55 Mt CO2-e is expected to occur domestically, including 7 Mt CO2-e achieved by the CFI. The carbon pricing mechanism is also projected to drive the sourcing of a further 100 Mt CO2-e of abatement from overseas.
- In 2030, the carbon pricing mechanism is projected to achieve 390 Mt CO2-e of abatement. Of this, 155 Mt CO2-e is expected to occur domestically, including 10 Mt CO2-e by the CFI. The carbon pricing mechanism is projected to drive the sourcing of a further 235 Mt CO2-e of abatement from overseas.
Over the projections period, significant decoupling of emissions growth from population and economic growth is projected. In 2030, Australia's net emissions per person are projected to be 13 tonnes CO2-e, down from the current level of 25 tonnes CO2-e per person. In 2030, net emissions per billion dollars of GDP are projected to be around half the level they would be without the carbon price.
2012 Technical papers for each sectoral projection
Stationary energy emissions projections (PDF 7.7 MB)
Projections to 2030 of emissions from electricity generation and direct combustion of fuels (other than for transport).
Data for graphs in the stationary energy paper (XLS 510 KB)
Industrial processes emissions projections (PDF 3.1 MB)
Projections to 2030 of process emissions from industrial production and from consumption of halocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride.
Data for graphs in the industrial processes paper(XLS 450 KB)
Deforestation and reforestation projections (PDF 9.4 MB)
Projections to 2030 of emissions and sequestration from deforestation and reforestation activities.
Data for graphs in the deforestation and reforestation paper (XLS 300 KB)
Modelling reports by external consultants
- Sinclair Knight Merz (SKM MMA) - stationary energy (PDF 1.5 MB)
- Blue Environment - waste (PDF 400 KB)
- Tracking Australia's greenhouse gas emissions
- Strong growth, low pollution: modelling a carbon price
- Australia's Fifth National Communication on Climate Change
- Estimating the cost of abatement—Framework and practical guidance
- Australia's emissions projections 2010
- Australia's emissions projections 2009—Tracking to Kyoto and 2020